Mon. March 4, 9:00 a.m. – 9:12 a.m. CST
208CD
Since the onset of the global pandemic, Brazil’s sports betting app landscape has witnessed continuous growth. This thriving domain motivates us to investigate the underlying dynamics that govern betting group dynamics. We introduce an Erd ̈os-R ́enyi random network in which the connections represent social interactions among betting agents. We employ Monte Carlo simulations, and at the beginning of each time step, we assign an opinion to each agent, simulating their views on a given betting outcome that evolves under the majority-vote dynamics. Agent participation implies debiting a ticket acquisition, with reserves from all participants funding the prize pool. The winning result yields prize distribution among fans who support the prevailing opinion. This study explores the connection between an agent’s beliefs regarding potential match outcomes and their financial returns. We calculate the average return across matches for networks with varying connectivity 〈k〉 and social anxiety q while accounting for a tax imposed by the prize operator. Additionally, we introduce a function that modifies the odds for victory based on winning or losing streaks, further enriching our understanding of the dynamics at play.
Presented By
- Matheus Henrique C Gusmão (Universidade de Pernambuco)
Sportsbooks and opinion dynamics on random networks
Mon. March 4, 9:00 a.m. – 9:12 a.m. CST
208CD
Since the onset of the global pandemic, Brazil’s sports betting app landscape has witnessed continuous growth. This thriving domain motivates us to investigate the underlying dynamics that govern betting group dynamics. We introduce an Erd ̈os-R ́enyi random network in which the connections represent social interactions among betting agents. We employ Monte Carlo simulations, and at the beginning of each time step, we assign an opinion to each agent, simulating their views on a given betting outcome that evolves under the majority-vote dynamics. Agent participation implies debiting a ticket acquisition, with reserves from all participants funding the prize pool. The winning result yields prize distribution among fans who support the prevailing opinion. This study explores the connection between an agent’s beliefs regarding potential match outcomes and their financial returns. We calculate the average return across matches for networks with varying connectivity 〈k〉 and social anxiety q while accounting for a tax imposed by the prize operator. Additionally, we introduce a function that modifies the odds for victory based on winning or losing streaks, further enriching our understanding of the dynamics at play.
Presented By
- Matheus Henrique C Gusmão (Universidade de Pernambuco)